A bruising 24 hours - what next for Fifa and under-pressure Infantino?
A bruising 24 hours - what next for Fifa and under-pressure Infantino?
Gianni Infantino was elected Fifa president in 2016
- Published
A week is a long time in politics. Football politics.
On Tuesday morning, Gianni Infantino was in an impregnable position as Fifa president, the most powerful job in football.
Now, after trying to sell stakes in Fifa competitions to private investments firms - apparently without the knowledge of anyone else - Infantino's position appears to be under threat.
Uefa - Infantino's fiercest critic - dealt its trump card on Thursday by threatening to boycott all Fifa competitions, including the World Cup.
Now European football's governing body senses the opportunity to remove Infantino - and this is likely to be the best chance it will ever get.
But they're far from the only unhappy federation.
Concacaf, the confederation Infantino worked so closely with to organise the 2026 World Cup, has called for a "full review" into the leadership of Fifa in light of Infantino's plan.
Even more damaging, loyal countries in the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) shunned him too.
Then he was abandoned by two of his closest allies - first senior adviser Carlos Cordeiro and then chief operating officer Kevin Lamour.
After Infantino backtracked in the early hours of Saturday morning, Uefa delivered another devastating blow by issuing a strong statement saying it had lost confidence in him.
The battles lines have been drawn. What could happen next?
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How could Infantino be ousted?
The quickest route for Infantino's exit would be for the Swiss to resign, like his predecessor Sepp Blatter did in 2015.
But Infantino still retains support and he could try to hold out until March, when he is up for re-election for a fourth and final term as president.
What other avenues are open?
The Fifa Council could try to force Infantino's hand through an emergency meeting.
Such a gathering would be triggered if 19 of the 37 Fifa Council members call for one.
Uefa has nine members, AFC has seven, Concacaf five, Africa has six, Conmebol five and Oceania three. It is completed by Infantino and secretary general Mattias Grafstrom.
BBC Sport understands there are some doubts that the 19 votes could be achieved.
If they do get to 19, the meeting must take place within two weeks and the Fifa Council could call on Infantino to tender his resignation. But he could simply refuse to do so.
It would, however, add further pressure.
The next step would be an extraordinary congress of the 211 Fifa member associations, which would be held if one-fifth, or 43 associations, "make such a request in writing".
So Uefa, which has 55 nations, can trigger the extraordinary congress whenever it so wishes.
That would take a minimum of two months from the point it is triggered, but more likely three months, and there is no guarantee of success.
In effect, it would be a de facto election without there being another candidate as 106 votes would be needed to pass the vote of no confidence.
Uefa has 55, Africa 54, Asia 46, Concacaf 35, Oceania 11 and Conmebol 10.
Africa, Conmebol and Oceania have not criticised Infantino's plan.
So could Uefa get to 106? In total, 136 countries officially rejected the investment plan, but voting to reject an idea is not the same as voting to kick Infantino out.
Of the 136, Qatar have already publicly backed him and Mexico have distanced themselves from the joint Concacaf statement.
Which leaves finding a suitable candidate to fight the election in March.
Infantino stood unopposed when he was re-elected in 2019 and 2023 and if someone wants to battle him for the position, the deadline to announce their candidacy is 18 November.
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Who could potentially replace Infantino?
If Uefa and Infantino's biggest critics have to go down the election route, they will need to find a unifying leader.
As Uefa has been so strong in its opposition to Infantino, a European candidate might struggle to get global support. After all, it might seem like it is trying to take over Fifa itself.
So there must be a candidate who can attract the support of those countries in Concacaf, Africa and Asia who could have been loyal to Infantino but could be persuaded to switch their votes.
The most likely candidate appears to be Concacaf president Victor Montagliani.
Like Infantino, he was elected in 2016 promising governance reform. A former president of Canada Soccer, Montagliani was heavily involved in the build up to and delivery of the 2026 World Cup. He is fluent in French, Italian and Spanish, as well as English.
Another option would be Sheikh Salman bin Ebrahim Al Khalifa, the AFC president.
Initially elected in 2013, he was re-elected unopposed for a fourth term to run to 2027.
Sheikh Salman signed off the confederation's brutal takedown of how Fifa is being run by Infantino and has carried with him a 46-member confederation, many of whom are aware the figures being offered by Infantino's plan are huge in terms of their overall football expenditure.
Less likely appears to be Paris St-Germain president Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari who is also the chair of European Football Clubs.
Al-Khelaifi helped bring European football back together after another seismic event that threatened to pull the game apart - the ill-fated European Super League.
In theory, the Qatari would be a serious challenger to Infantino. But it seems he doesn't want the role. Qatar's support for Infantino could be an issue, too.
How likely is it that Infantino is ousted?
In any other business, Infantino would be unlikely to continue in his role.
But football, of course, is not a normal business.
Remember Sepp Blatter, who resigned in 2015 when he had no option left amid a corruption scandal. He had even been re-elected the week before.
So will Infantino try to fight on?
In his statement on Saturday, he said his intent "was to bring all interested parties back together in the coming days and weeks".
For Infantino, contrition could make this all float away.
Maybe it is working. Following on from Qatar, 2030 co-hosts Morocco backed him on Saturday evening. Then Egypt praised Infantino for cancelling his masterplan.
Infantino may be thinking that if he can, day by day, get more member associations on board, the prospect of a vote of no confidence is less likely to be successful.
After all, his support base has been so strong for so long you can understand why he might have such confidence.
As a vote of no confidence is three months away, he has the chance to repair at least some of the damage.
It is a race to 106 - and the more time elapses, the more chance Infantino can persuade his former allies this was just an aberration.
For Uefa, the question is whether it can create a situation whereby Infantino is left with no option but to resign.
For that to happen, the criticism from federations across the world must continue.
But if there is one thing that could damage Infantino further, it would be for major sponsors to distance themselves from the organisation.
During the 2015 Fifa scandal, Sony, Emirates, Castrol, Continental Tyres and Johnson & Johnson were among the companies to discontinue their huge sponsorship deals.
There is no sign of this just yet but this is a saga with the potential to rumble on.